Will wars in the Middle East shift the focus?

US presidential elections are rarely shaped by foreign affairs, but the wars in the Middle East are escalating at the very moment that millions of voters are preparing to cast ballots.

It’s still unclear how Iran would respond to Israel’s unusually public airstrikes across Iran on Friday. The answer could determine whether the region spirals further toward all-out war or holds steady at an already devastating and destabilising level of violence.

Iran’s response could also determine the extent to which the Middle East conflict shapes the US election.

The issue has been especially difficult for Harris to navigate as she simultaneously vows to support Israel and offers empathy for those tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by Israel’s response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks. The Democratic vice president continues to face intense pressure from her party’s progressive base, which has been extremely critical of Israel.

Trump has been unapologetically supportive of Israel, although some Arab American leaders — especially in swing-state Michigan — have been unusually supportive of the Republican former president, who famously banned travel from many Muslim countries during his first term.

Even in a best-case scenario, the next president will inherit one of the most volatile foreign policy challenges in decades.

Will Harris’ closing message harness Democrats’ anxiety?

It would be an understatement to describe Democrats as anxious as election day looms. But there was a deliberate effort by Harris’ senior team over the weekend to project optimism to help temper the fear.

Harris senior adviser Jenn O’Malley Dillon predicted victory on MSNBC on Sunday: “We are confident we’re going to win this thing,” she said. “We’re seeing extraordinary enthusiasm. This is going to be a close race, and our campaign is exactly where we want to be.” 

Harris will try to alleviate Democratic anxiety further on Tuesday when she delivers her “closing argument” at the Ellipse, the same spot near the White House where Trump spoke on January 6, 2021 shortly before his supporters attacked the Capitol.

Harris is expected to focus her remarks on the danger Trump poses to US democracy. She has called her Republican rival “a fascist” in recent days. And she’s been joined by an unlikely ally, Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly, who has also described Trump as a fascist recently.

But she’s expected to hit broader themes as well, encouraging voters to look behind her at the White House and imagine who will be sitting at the Resolute Desk at a moment of great consequence. She’s aiming to drive home the stakes of the November 5 election for undecided voters — especially moderate Republicans who may be uncomfortable with Trump’s divisive leadership and extreme rhetoric. And while Harris’ team is betting that there is a significant number of moderates who can still be persuaded, progressive Democrats are worried she’s not focused enough on economic issues in the campaign’s closing days.

Democratic anxiety, we have learned, may be a fact of life.

Can Trump stay on message (relatively speaking)?

Even before the week began, Trump’s campaign risked being knocked off course by controversy. A rally at New York City’s Madison Square Garden that was meant to serve as a closing message was instead overshadowed by racist insults, including a comedian who called Puerto Rico a "floating island of garbage". 

And with just a week to go until Election Day, history suggests Trump is virtually guaranteed to say or do something else controversial in the final stretch. The only question is whether it will break through.

If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Trump cannot help himself. He’s been using authoritarian-style rhetoric in recent days to suggest that his Democratic opponents, whom he calls “ the enemy within,” are more dangerous to the nation than the threat posed by Russia and China.

Democrats will be combing through every Trump interview and public appearance for something similar to exploit. There are also multiple ongoing criminal investigations into Trump, who has already been convicted of 34 felony charges, that could reveal new information.

Yet Democrats are the first to admit that voter opinions of Trump is so hardened that it would take something truly stunning to change the course of the election.

There is precedent for a final-week stunner, however. Remember, it was October 28, 2016 when former FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress indicating that federal investigators learned of new emails pertinent to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.

Where will they go?

The candidates’ evolving travel schedules will tell us much about the battlegrounds that will matter most on Election Day.

Here’s what we know for sure: Harris and Trump are aggressively competing in just seven swing states that will ultimately decide the election. They are the three so-called “Blue Wall” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — in addition to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

From a political perspective, however, not every one of the seven is created equal.

Harris spent Sunday in Pennsylvania, which may be the election’s biggest prize. Harris is next scheduled to go to Michigan. And after Tuesday’s closing argument in Washington, she plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on Wednesday alone. She heads to Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.

What do we know about Trump’s schedule? He’s booked to host at least one rally every day: Monday in Georgia, Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Wednesday in Wisconsin, Thursday in Nevada, Friday in Wisconsin again and Saturday in Virginia.

But as a reminder, these schedules are likely to change based on the campaigns’ intelligence on the ground.

Will the early voting surge continue?

More than 41 million votes have already been cast in the election nationwide. Democrats generally have an advantage in early voting, but so far, at least, Republicans are participating at a much higher rate than they have in the past.

The question is whether it will last.

Trump, of course, has for years encouraged his supporters to cast only in-person ballots on election day. The practice put Republicans at a significant disadvantage. He largely reversed course in recent months as he and his party acknowledged the obvious benefit of being able to bank their votes as early as possible.

Because of the Republican participation, the early turnout was breaking records last week in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina.

But with the Republican party more focused on “election integrity” rather than a traditional get-out-the-vote operation, it’s unclear whether the uptick in Republican early voting will continue. Democrats hope it won’t.

How hard will Trump work to undermine election results?

History may one day decide that the most significant thing Trump said in the closing days of the 2024 election is the thing that many voters barely notice anymore: his persistent warnings that this election is rigged against him.

Indeed, as election day approaches, Trump is increasingly warning his supporters that he will lose on November 5 only if his political opponents cheat. Such statements have no basis in fact. There was no evidence of significant voter fraud in the 2020 election, which Trump lost, and there is no evidence that Trump’s adversaries can or will rig this election against him either.

Still, Trump’s unfounded warnings make an already tense and violent election season even more fraught. And there are real threats that foreign adversaries — especially Russia, China and Iran — will meddle in the election.

At the same time, the Republican National Committee has invested tens of millions of dollars into an operation to mobilise thousands of polling place monitors, poll workers and attorneys to serve as “election integrity” watchdogs. Democrats are worried that the effort could lead to harassment of election workers and undermine trust in the vote.

Both parties are aggressively preparing for long legal battles no matter who wins.