The size and blast yield of these bombs were not revealed. The main targets were two senior Hamas military leaders, Muhammed Deif, second in command to Hamas Military Chief Sinwar and Rafa Salameh, the Hamas commander in Khan Yunis. 

Their deaths have not been confirmed, and may not be confirmed, as a week ago all mainstream Western media were, once again, banned from Gaza by the IDF. 

This ban was imposed to protect the security of current IDF military operations in Gaza. But why are there extensive IDF operations still being conducted in Gaza?

On June 18, I wrote a piece disagreeing with the IDF assessments of Hamas’s military capability. The IDF had announced that the Hamas military capability had been degraded by 90%, with just four battalions, or less than 3,000, still holed up in Rafah. 

My analysis showed that the bulk of Hamas fighters, as many as 15,000, had, however, survived the war to date, mainly under cover in the tunnels, or in densely populated areas. 

The extent of IDF air and ground operations in the past month proves my conclusions were correct, as Hamas has since re-emerged in the north, the centre and the south of Gaza.

US influence

There is still no consensus on the framework for a ceasefire agreement which the US have been brokering for the past two months. The US seems to be paralysed in using its influence to clinch a deal. Has Uncle Sam lost his ‘mojo’? 

The fact is that the US Administration has been slipping on geopolitical banana skins, ever since the botched withdrawal of US forces from Kabul in August 2021. 

When President Trump made a secret deal with the Taliban, behind the backs of the Afghan Government and without informing US allies, he limited options for the incoming Biden Administration. 

However, the Biden Administration failed to implement the agreement in a way that protected the lives of their Afghan supporters, or the wider Afghan population. The US reputation as a reliable ally took a hit worldwide. 

Then, more recently, the missed deadlines for delivering US military support to Ukraine, especially caused by the US Congress, are primarily responsible for the major shift in the balance of military power in the Ukraine-Russia War, in favour of Russia. 

Now US diplomatic efforts to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza have been mishandled by the Biden Administration, specifically by the State Department.

It should have been easy. Six weeks ago, the key elements of a US-backed framework for a ceasefire in the Gaza war had been identified. 

However, inept US efforts to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to commit to an ultimate permanent ceasefire failed. A phone call two weeks ago, between PM Netanyahu and President Biden was supposed to have sorted things out. 

Then within days Netanyahu is still saying he cannot sign up to such a proposed ceasefire until “all goals have been achieved”, listing five preconditions. It is as if Netanyahu is prepared to hold out until Trump wins the November US Presidential election. 

That seemed a long shot, excuse the pun, until the Donald survived an assassination attempt, in the boondocks of Pennsylvania.

There is an even more immediate scenario. There are concerns that President Biden’s cognitive functions may be impaired to the extent that he should step aside as the Democratic candidate. 

If this is the case, it begs the question why is he currently still in office? If his cognitive functions are affected that badly, he should resign now and hand over to Vice President Kamala Harris. If not, he should agree to an independent medical review and have it published.

Ceasefire

Assuming the latest glitch is resolved, and the framework agreed, the details of the ceasefire agreement itself still have to be negotiated. It is often a prolonged process, as the fighting continues, and negotiation teams battle it out to achieve an advantage. 

The aim is that a ceasefire should rapidly expand into a truce, creating a space for peace talks, which would finally lead to a peace agreement. A truce alone is not enough to guarantee lasting peace, although some truces have survived decades without breakdown.

Calls for an immediate ceasefire are often well-motivated but not practical. War is not a football match where the referee blows a whistle and play stops immediately. A precise date and time must be included in the ceasefire protocol. 

Up to that moment, both sides fight for control of key terrain. Good communications are essential for an effective ceasefire, as sometimes the word may not get through to frontline troops on time.

For example, a classic situation arose on the Golan Heights during the final days of the Six Day War, in June 1967, as the tide of battle turned in favour of the Israelis. The Syrians agreed to several ceasefires, which they broke, as their own forces kept firing on the Israelis after the agreed time. 

Each time the Syrians violated the ceasefire the Israelis would resume the offensive and push the Syrians back a few more kilometres. The UNTSO (UN Truce Supervision Organisation) Chief of Staff, Major General Odd Bull, met with the Israeli Defence Minister, General Moshe Dayan, as proposed ceasefires kept breaking down. 

It was an Irish (UNTSO) staff officer who realised the problem. He intervened and pointed out that the Syrians needed longer time to get the word down to their forward units. Dayan was very annoyed by the Irish staff officer’s intervention. His ceasefire tactics had been rumbled.

For peacekeepers monitoring a ceasefire there is an urgency during the first few hours to ensure effective observation over the entire ceasefire. This is done by establishing observation posts and mobile patrols to achieve maximum visibility in the area, so that a ceasefire violator could be identified. 

The next step is to separate the belligerent forces, to reduce the risk of ceasefire violations. The broad separation of forces is usually agreed in advance, but sometimes the details are left to the peacekeepers on the ground to negotiate.

The best chance for a successful ceasefire and truce is to deploy an impartial international peacekeeping force in Gaza with a robust mandate. While our Defence Forces have great experience in implementing ceasefire agreements, our recent recognition of Palestine might make us unacceptable to the Israeli side. 

But let’s see. Stranger things have happened.

• Dorcha Lee is a retired Army Colonel, with experience of working on ceasefire supervision missions is Cyprus, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Iraq and Georgia.