There has been a mixed assessment on the fortunes of the far right in the Irish local and European elections.
Some political and media analysis has suggested that a feared, even predicted, wave of far-right sentiment, fuelled by discontent on the immigration issue, threatened to steal significant numbers of voters from Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, and Fianna Fáil.
Hence, in the weeks leading to the election, the succession of initiatives, and public statements, from the Government — in particular Fine Gael top brass — tightening up on immigration and hardening the rhetoric.
As it turned out, of the 949 local authority seats, the far-right took only four of them — albeit from a starting point of zero.
All four seats were in Dublin.
Two of the seats went to far-right political parties — the Irish Freedom Party (IFP) and the National Party (NP).
Glen Moore of the IFP took a seat in Palmerstown-Fonthill, part of South Dublin County Council, and Patrick Quinlan of the NP took a seat in Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart, in Fingal County Council.
The other two successful candidates were high-profile independents, both of whom have been at the forefront of mass anti-immigrant protests across Dublin.
Malachy Steenson took 915 first preference votes (FPV) in Dublin’s North Inner City and, when elected, said his success sent “a very clear message the revolution has begun”.
He told RTÉ: “It’s a fabulous result for the nationalist movement in Ireland, it’s a fabulous result for the people of Ireland. We are taking our nation back.”
He was later joined by Gavin Pepper in the Ballymun-Finglas constituency, who secured 1,126 FPV.
He attracted a further 1,300 on transfers, including 930 votes from National Party candidate Stephen Redmond (who himself got 930 FPV) and 293 from Leon Bradley, prominent in ‘Finglas Says No’.
The Ballymun-Finglas constituency saw a total of 2,875 FPV for those three far-right candidates — almost 20% of the votes cast (which, on average, across the country, was less than half).
Reflecting their close relationship, Mr Pepper was hoisted aloft in celebration by a delighted Hermann Kelly, leader of the IFP.
Afterwards, Mr Pepper said of ‘illegal’ migrants: “The Government needs to wake up and send them home.”
A prominent far right social media account, boasting 27,000 followers on X, posted photographs of the four elected candidates and commented: “Well done to nationalists this week. Great to finally have like-minded representatives in some of our communities.”
Some left-wing commentators have, understandably, complained at the disproportionate impact the far right has had on society, including thwarting Government policy to house asylum seekers, based on a relatively poor electoral mandate.
And many people refer to the far greater number of people from migrant backgrounds that got elected — with over 20 elected to local authorities.
There were plenty of disappointments for many prominent far-right figures, including Philip Dwyer (Ireland First) in Tallaght Central, Andy Heasman (Irish People) in Blanchardstown, and Ross Lahive (IP) in Cork City North West.
Derek Blighe, leader of Ireland First, secured 915 FPV and only fell at the last hurdle, just 120 votes behind the candidates above him.
In the European Elections, in Ireland South, Blighe got 25,071 FPV (3.6%) and was eliminated on 38,625 votes.
Michael Leahy of the IFP got 12,259 FPV (1.78%), while Ross Lahive got 4,461.
Between the three of them, they totalled 41,791 FPV or 6% of the total. They were eliminated with a total of 58,444 votes.
In Midlands North West, the five far-right candidates secured 28,843 FPV (4.24%), led by Hermann Kelly on 13,904 (2%).
Mr Kelly got 3,500 votes after John Waters votes were distributed.
In the Dublin constituency, the six far-right candidates got a total of 22,733 votes (6%), led by Mr Steenson on 7,128 with Mr Dwyer behind him on 4,479.
This does not include right-wing candidate Niall Boylan, who got 30,637 FPV (8%). He had 50,416 votes on elimination.
If Mr Boylan was included with the far-right vote, the broad right-wing vote clocked up 53,410 votes (14% of the total).
Bar Mr Steenson, the bulk of hard-right candidates were new to running for election and most did not get much airtime on national airwaves.
Commenting on both elections, Professor of European Politics in Maynooth, John O’Brennan, said there was a perception across Europe that “the ‘centre’ has held and that the anticipated surge of the radical right was not as significant as expected”.
But he said this was a “very complacent” view and cited the shock decision of French president Emmanuel Macron to hold a snap election in a bid to stem the rise of Marine le Pen’s Front National, which made historic gains, capturing 31.5% of the vote.
Prof O’Brennan said there was the same complacency in Ireland: “In Ireland there has been a similar reading of the elections [and local elections] — Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael did better than expected, Sinn Féin had a terrible election and, again, the far right has been kept at bay.
“Again, I see this as a misreading of the underlying landscape.”
He said he calculated that, in Ireland South, the far right scored around 50,000 votes out of 688,000 votes cast — or approximately 7.5% of the vote — and that, in Dublin, they scored approximately 57,000 first preferences out of 378,000 votes cast — or 15%.
He acknowledged his inclusion of candidates as ‘far right’ might differ from other estimates.
He said, in Midlands North West, the far right candidates achieved almost 60,000 first preferences out of approximately 680,000 votes cast — just less than 10%.
“Looking at these combined results, this is a historical high for the combined far right vote in Ireland,” he said.
He said the far right is divided across multiple parties and platforms and, in many cases, there are “personality disputes and internecine conflicts” which prevent them from cooperating effectively.
“In particular, they lack a charismatic leader figure,” he said, a view held by many observers of the far right in Ireland.
“We have no Geert Wilders [Netherlands] in Ireland, nor a Marine Le Pen or Nigel Farage. How long will our luck hold out?
"At what point might just such a charismatic leader emerge to unite the different factions and make real inroads into the Oireachtas?”
He said that if Europe, and Ireland, experience anything like the 2008 recession again the far right will seek to benefit.
“The starting point for far-right parties is vastly higher across Europe than it was in 2008 and many economies are carrying high levels of debt after the covid years,” he said.
“It would not take much to ignite an even more successful push by far right governments to take power.”
Many prominent far-right individuals and social media accounts in Ireland are commenting more about the need to merge the existing far-right parties.
The closeness of the IFP leader to Mr Pepper may suggest the possibility of movement there.
Observers have noted a lack of individuals on the far right who are articulate and popular enough to gather support across the movement.
At the speeches of one of the mass protests in Dublin recently, organised by Mr Steenson, Mr Blighe, a Cork man, got the biggest reaction and applause from the assembled crowd, indicating his potential appeal beyond his base.
No doubt he, Mr Pepper and Mr Steenson and, possibly, Mr Kelly, will look to lead the far-right charge in the general election.
Then there is the presidential election, which could be particularly interesting.
Weighing up the impact of the far right post-election goes beyond how many seats they got or even what percentage of the vote they received.
The wider and deeper impact are the messages of the far right that have gained traction in society, among everyday people — narratives that have now put down roots in normal political discourse.
The far right has planted in many people’s minds that, as their main slogan goes, #IrelandisFull — a theme also adopted by many independent candidates, including those elected, who are not included in the ‘far-right’, at least not yet.
The far right has made inroads in creating division, mistrust, fear and even hatred of immigrants, even foreigners, in Irish society.
What was noticeable in the weeks leading up to the election was the way the term ‘illegal immigrants’ was often replaced by just ‘immigrants’ (on social media stronger words like ‘scumbags’ were often used) and it got to the stage that many far right agitators, supporters were just referring to ‘foreigners’ — basically foreign-looking people in general.
So, before dismissing the impact of the far right in elections, we may need to consider how deep their impact has actually been and how we are really just at the starting point.