Theresa Reidy: Why a November election looks immensely more rational
Sasko The Taoiseach Micheál No And Lazarov Eamon Ie Photo: Publicly Harris Martin, Date Simon To Have 2025 Insist The Choice Ryan Tánaiste On Minister Rollingnews But / ©
Over the election weekend, the Taoiseach, Tánaiste and leader of the Green Party were all quick to assert that the government would see out its term to March 2025.
They have no choice but to insist publicly on the 2025 date. If there is even a hint of a late autumn election from any of them, every Dáil candidate in the country will go into campaigning overdrive.
According to the Constitution, it is the Taoiseach who has the final decision on the timing of the next election. But a politically astute Taoiseach will want to give some consideration to the views of their coalition colleagues when making the decision, especially if they want to have the coalition re-elected.
An orderly end to the government is going to make the election campaign a much smoother affair. It seems likely that the Greens will have the strongest preference for a 2025 election but for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, despite all the protestations, a November election looks immensely more rational.
Political momentum is with the government at present. Before the local and European Parliament elections, the prospects for the governing parties were generally viewed as fairly glum. Governing parties usually struggle at mid-term elections and small parties in coalitions usually fare worst of all.
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On balance, the parties confounded these propositions. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, lost some seats on their 2019 positions but in fact both parties had marginal gains on their 2020 general election results. The Greens suffered slightly more losses, but overall all three outperformed expectations and this is giving the parties ‘hope’ that they could have a successful general election campaign.
In sharp contrast, Sinn Féin now finds itself in disarray. As the main party of opposition, it should have made important gains. The party did advance on its 2019 local election results but overall will end up with under 12% of the first preference vote which is less than half what the party secured in the 2020 general election and substantially below where it had been polling for much of the period since 2020.
There were many hot-takes on why the party experienced its sharp decline and undoubtedly the party will itself engage in a deep diagnosis of the problems. Something similar happened in 2019 and Sinn Féin came back stronger than ever for the 2020 general election. There is a strategic lesson here for the government, Sinn Féin needs time to reflect, regroup and reorganise. It might seem a bit unfair but why would their political opponents give Sinn Féin the time it needs to do this.
The final results of the European Parliament elections came through in a bit of a rush after many days of counting and several TDs and senators have been elected as MEPs. Seanad seats can be filled quietly but by-elections for the Dáil are required within six months of the resignations of the TDs which will likely come in mid-July when they formally take up their MEP roles.
While the government could reasonably expect to hold its party seats, it will still face by-election campaigns across the country before the end of the year. By-elections cost the State money and they cost parties time and money.
There is also an outside possibility that the government could lose a seat. It is not a risk worth taking. A November election would resolve this issue and also provide a solid justification for the government to adjust its thinking on the election date.
The election campaign just gone was marred by abuse of politicians, posters being defaced and stolen, and parties providing detailed safety advice and training for their candidates.
There has been a lot of commentary from potential candidates that campaigning in the summer months is more pleasant and voters are more willing to answer their doors in daylight. But there is more than comfort at play now, candidate security will be even more challenging as the evenings get darker.
Sadly, the unpleasantness in our politics and coarseness in political debate mean that getting most of the campaign out of the way before the clocks go back is a serious consideration.
Finally, in the midst of the election campaign, the exchequer returns for May were released and showed an increase in corporation tax receipts of 30% over the same month in 2023. May is not the most important month for tax returns but it is a good omen for the rest of the year.
This means that the government coffers will be buoyant again by budget time. The government performed well on the cost-of-living crisis. It ignored the fiscal hawks and provided strong supports across a range of social and business programmes. Government support stabilised during the period.
Another generous budget would certainly sweeten the path to the next election. The complication in the budget argument is that it usually takes several months for the legislative aspects of the budget to be finalised through the finance bill and the social welfare bill. A responsible government needs to complete this work before calling an election.
The timing of the budget is therefore the critical piece of information that will shape views on the election date. If there is any sign that the budget is being brought forward, it is game on for a slightly early election. In 2010, the government was able to expedite the finance and social welfare bills.
If the government brings the budget forward to early September, it will be able to get the important legal requirements through and have a short, sharp campaign that would take it through to early November. It will need to avoid the mid-term break and sporting fixtures.
There are only three to four months at play but the logic for November is much stronger than March.
- Dr Theresa Reidy is a political scientist at University College Cork and co-editor of Politics in the Republic of Ireland.