Elaine Loughlin: The Sinn Féin rollercoaster ride lurches from high to low

If Mary Lou McDonald is to get her party into power at the next general election, which after Friday's votes could be sooner rather than later, she must prove that Sinn Féin is a political entity worth sticking with
Elaine Loughlin: The Sinn Féin rollercoaster ride lurches from high to low

Mcdonald Damien Féin At Sunday's The Leader Sinn Count Lou Rds Picture: Mary Storan/pa For

In contrast to the stability put forward by the main Government parties, Sinn Féin is now becoming a rollercoaster ride that voters hop on and off every few years.

It doesn't bode well for Mary Lou McDonald's ambitions of becoming the first female Taoiseach.

If she is to get her party into power after the next general election, which after Friday's votes could be sooner rather than later, she needs to prove that Sinn Féin is a political entity worth sticking with.

If McDonald was looking downcast as she arrived into the RDS count centre in 2019, she was utterly dejected this time around.

"Some days the day is yours and the tide is in and some days are more challenging and the challenge for any political organisation is to be able to manage and to navigate your way through either scenario. You have to have all-weather politics," she told the waiting reporters in 2019 as Sinn Féin braced itself for a domino of losses across local authorities.

"Sinn Féin aren't cry babies; we dust ourselves down and we get back at it because that's what political activism is all about," she added, making it clear to detractors that her party was down, but not out.

It was an honest account of where the party was at after taking a hammering in the polls, but still contained a bit of a bite to encourage the grassroots to get back up.

Eight months later, with a spring in their step, it appeared that Sinn Féin members had dusted themselves off as they claimed seats in the 2020 general election.

But McDonald's party has once again stumbled and there are only so many times you can wipe the blood off scraped knees.

The Sinn Féin president has said there will be a full review to identify what went wrong for the party this time around and what can be changed before a general election.

When asked if that review would include the leadership of the party, she gave a less than robust response: "I will lead this reflection and this process. When the going gets tough, that's the point at which leaders step forward, they don't step down."

Mary Lou McDonald speaks to reporters at the RDS count on Sunday. Picture: Sam Boal/Collins
Mary Lou McDonald speaks to reporters at the RDS count on Sunday. Picture: Sam Boal/Collins

Sinn Féin has secured around 11% of first preference votes at local level, compared to Fianna Fáil on around 22% and Fine Gael on 23%.

As of lunchtime on Sunday, that transferred into 15 Sinn Féin council seats, significantly lower than the 85 claimed by Fine Gael and 78 by Fianna Fáil.

By 7.30pm as local seats filled up across the country, Fianna Fáil was on 127 and Fine Gael on 144, while Sinn Fein was lingering considerably behind on 36 local council seats.

Making her way into the count centre on Sunday, after another bad day, McDonald said: "I am sorry that we didn't do better. I know that we can do better and I am determined that we will do that."

There was none of that spark often seen in fiery exchanges between the Sinn Féin leader and her Government rivals in Leinster House.

Instead, a contrite McDonald said: "In 2020 we didn’t run enough candidates and as you know I heard a message loud and clear in that regard. 

"I wanted to be sure that we didn’t make that mistake again.

I wanted to be sure that everybody, wherever you lived, that you would have a chance to vote for Sinn Féin candidates. But look, clearly we didn’t get that right.

In the days leading up to the vote there were mutterings that the party had overestimated the level of public support and had filled ballot papers with too many candidates.

Candidate strategy

As the dust settles, examples of the failure of the Sinn Féin candidate strategy abound, but one which speaks volumes came in McDonald's own backyard. 

In the party's abysmal 2019 results, Natalie Treacy saw herself elected to Fingal County Council in the Castleknock ward on the back of strong local work and 871 first preferences.

This time around, she was put in the Cabra-Glasnevin ward, picking up just half of her 2019 total, while her replacement in Castleknock, Phil Lynam, looked unlikely to keep the seat.

In all three of the European constituencies the party took a risk in putting forward two candidates. It has left all candidates in a precarious position as votes and transfers are counted.

Sinn Féin is now facing many questions.

McDonald was yesterday adamant that there will be no major shifts in policy as the party prepares its manifesto ahead of the next election.

She did, however, admit that the the party needs to "sharpen our offering" especially in relation to the key issues impacting people.

Sinn Féin must, however, be honest with itself and ask how can it put itself forward as a realistic proposal to voters as a Government option that can be trusted to lead for an entire term, if the party continues to lurch up and down at every election.

McDonald's own political future may also depend on turning around the narrative of Sinn Féin simply being a temporary flip-flop vote.

"We don't always get it right. We clearly have lessons to learn," she said.

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