Housing Commission's report a damning indictment of decades of government policy
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A radical strategical reset of housing policy.
Risk aversion, ineffective interventions, and a need for emergency action.
The Housing Commission's final report, given to the minister for housing two weeks ago, is a damning indictment of a housing system that is not working as intended.
The sections of the report, which runs to 400 pages and seen by this paper, are unique in their critique of decades of government policy.
The commission was established by the Government and "tasked to examine issues such as tenure, standards, sustainability, and quality-of-life issues in the provision of housing, all of which have long-term impacts on communities" as well as the efficient working of the market.
In its overview, the executive summary is scathing, stating:
"The Housing Commission has identified that over several decades there have been a range of interventions to deal with housing. However, these interventions have not resolved failures that are fundamentally systemic.
"This must be addressed.
"The commission's work his identified as core issues ineffective decision-making and reactive policymaking where risk aversion dominates. These issues, together with external influences impacting housing dynamics, contribute to volatility in supply undermining affordability in the housing system.
"Should these issues persist, there will continue to be insufficient progress on the issues our society faces. These problems have arisen due to the failure to successfully treat housing as a critical social and economic priority, evident in a lack of consistency in housing policy."
The strength of those opening paragraphs should not be understated, especially when one considers the makeup of the commission.
This is not a policy talking shop; there are representatives from across the housing sector — including developers — represented, and their overall message is that Ireland's housing system is not working as is.
But the Government knows this, largely. It has its own plan, Housing For All, and has said that much of what's been suggested by the Housing Commission is already being handled by that document and the mammoth Planning and Development Bill, which is inching its way through the Oireachtas at present.
But as with much in life, it is not so much what has been said, it is the way it has been said. That an independent body established by the Government has excoriated decades of housing policy and suggested a "radical strategic reset" is a major development and poses questions for the Government and anyone who wishes to succeed them.
Mostly, it will raise the question of whether Housing For All, the document introduced in 2021 to chart a new course in the crisis-laden sector, goes far enough, does enough, or has enough ambition.
But it also raises the question of whether anyone wants to show the kind of political will called for in the commission's report, which suggests an underspend of about €3bn a year on housing between government and private investment, as well as an underlying undersupply of over a quarter of a million homes in Ireland.
It is handy that parts of the report leaked to RTÉ on Tuesday, because Dáil time was dominated by two sessions on housing.
Timing is everything in this game. And while Darragh O'Brien appeared sanguine in delivering his statements on Housing For All, the report has opened the Government up to criticisms on a key issue in the upcoming elections and one which has not faded from public thoughts since it was the issue foremost in the minds of voters in 2020.
The opposition lapped it up, with Sinn Féin's Eoin Ó Broin omnipresent across the airwaves and keen to say that the commission had scuttled Mr O'Brien's arguments that housing had turned a corner.
"I suspect that when the report landed on his desk, which according to the Taoiseach was on May 8, the minister's heart sank because as he delved into the report he realised not only were they setting out what needs to be done in the future — much of which, in my view, is very interesting — they were landing a devastating blow on the failure of the minister's policy and the policy of the Government he previously supported through confidence and supply."
Mr O'Brien, for his part, attempted to head off claims that the document would gather dust somewhere by saying he aims to publish the full document this week, but moved quickly on from the report when outlining the overall housing sector.
He added that "the majority of [the report's] recommendations are already in hand and build on the detailed plans we already have in place". It's not criticism, you see, it's constructive collaboration, two parties building on one another's work.
"Other aspects will require more detailed assessment," the minister did concede. Quite what that assessment will entail remains to be seen.
With housing remaining a major issue for candidates on the doors, the timing of this report's leaking poses a problem for Government parties.
But the questions posed go beyond the immediate. What is being called for is a major change in how housing is planned, funded, managed, and viewed in Ireland.
Whether anyone has the stomach for that fight is now the real question.