Michael McGrath can use new role to make life more difficult for aspiring dictators
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Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen doesn’t seem too focused on her commissioners’ past careers. Frances Fitzgerald, a former social worker, was made commissioner for financial services.
Now Michael McGrath, a former accountant, gets the grand portfolio of Democracy, Justice and the Rule of Law, which covers media freedom. Darker humour was in evidence too: the Austrians, surrounded by other EU members and Switzerland, have been put in charge of migration.
It’s the first time since David Byrne a quarter of a century ago that Ireland doesn’t have an economic portfolio. With the exception of the relationship between the tech industry and disinformation, MrGrath’s doesn’t touch on important Irish interests. Von der Leyen gave the most critical jobs to her allies in the European People’s Party (of which Fine Gael is a member), while MEPs from McGrath’s Fianna Fáil let it be known they voted against Von Der Leyen as commission president over Gaza. Crude transactionalism? Perish the thought.
Yet, it’s a higher-profile job than might seem. Because of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the EU’s new focus on economic security, it’s moved from being a technical issue of interest to lawyers and pro-democracy NGOs to affecting three of Von der Leyen’s most important priorities: the war, economic security, and protecting the integrity of the EU budget.
The two EU governments where populist authoritarians have gone furthest in dismantling democratic institutions, Hungary’s and Slovakia’s, are both pro-Russian stance. Hungary has repeatedly used its veto to block EU aid to Ukraine, while Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has suggested Ukraine concede part of its internationally recognised territory to Russia. Both have vetoes in the European Council, which decides on EU foreign policy. If Trump returns to power next year, Orbán in particular will present himself as the only man who can talk to the American president, and Ukraine’s need for European support will grow.
Meanwhile, Orbán and Fico court foreign investment from dictatorships to reduce their dependence on EU money that comes with rule of law oversight. Both have championed Chinese battery factories at the time the EU is trying to reduce its dependence on Chinese battery technology.
They can get away with pro-Kremlin foreign policy and corruption because they have destroyed domestic checks and balances, turning public broadcasters into state propaganda outlets and purveyors of Kremlin narratives, while harassing independent media, politicising the civil service and pressurising the judiciary. They intimidate independent minded businesses, even forcing them to sell to regime-connected oligarchs.
The EU can’t, of course, change regimes in its own members: as in Poland, populist authoritarians have to be removed at the ballot box. McGrath has a crucial role in keeping the space for opposition open, by watching the abuse of EU funds like a hawk with the new, Polish, budget commissioner, overseeing the implementation of the European Media Freedom Act, and helping civil society.
The Rule of Law budget mechanism, where countries have to complete “milestones” to get money has been faster and more flexible than waiting for court judgements. It should be extended to cover all areas of EU funding, not just those where the budget is at risk. The Media Freedom Act has come too late for Hungary’s media landscape — but it should be able to help in Slovakia, as long as it is implemented swiftly.
EU civil society funding, done through its “CERV” programme, is still too bureaucratic: it should use the simpler Erasmus+ system instead, and allow NGOs, like private companies and universities, to make a margin on their projects so they can build up core funds and cover the cost of unsuccessful funding bids with the surplus from bids they win.
Finally McGrath should remember that the EU’s strongest powers are found in the single market area.
These hybrid regimes exercise economic power through networks of cross-shareholdings. Often what appears to be a competitive market turns out to be anything but, as in the case of the Hungarian train manufacturer blocked from bidding for a train service in Spain on national security grounds that was subsidised by the Hungarian state and Hungarian state oil company, which imports large amounts of fuel from Russia.
McGrath will come under pressure to denounce leaders like Orbán and Fico, but that’s not the best way to get things done at the European Commission.
Far better to wield a system to apply EU law to make life more difficult for aspiring dictators and keep democratic opposition alive. In this he will have supporters, like the new defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius, and Executive Vice President for Democracy and Tech Sovereignty, Henna Virkkunen, as well as crucial relationships with the competition and budget commissioners. Alliances like these are needed to make his mark.