In maths, 12.6% of higher-level students got the top mark. Pre-pandemic in 2019, just 6.4% got a H1.

One in 25 students who sat higher-level business in 2019 got a H1. This year, it was over one in 10.

Everywhere you look, the proportion of students achieving the top grades is often doubling.

We are now well over two years since the last time the Irish people were in covid lockdown, but the pandemic still looms large over the State exam system in Ireland.

The problem that was so obviously present last year lingers to the same, if not greater extent, this year: How can we move away from pandemic-era grade inflation once and for all?

'Return to normal'

Brought in to help ensure a level playing field for students facing fierce pressure from the impact on their education brought about by covid, there is nevertheless an awareness at Government level of the need to “return to normal” in some form.

Since 2020, each cohort that was due to sit their Leaving Cert that summer has faced disruption in one form or another.

That year, calculated grades were issued as the exams were cancelled, given Ireland was in its initial stages of grappling with the pandemic.

In 2021, students could decide between sitting the exams, getting similar accredited grades to the previous year, or a mix of both. However, the move to teacher-assessed marks in the State exams led to huge grade inflation compared to previous cohorts, with results at record-breaking levels.

'No cliff edge'

Given the disruption to all students in various ways through school closures and truncated schedules during the pandemic, the Government buzzword around State exams became “no cliff edge”. It meant there would be no sudden regression in the results that brought them back to pre-covid levels.

In 2022, Education Minister Norma Foley said there would be “no cliff edge” for students after that year’s results matched the previous year.

That was the first year students’ grades were artificially inflated to make sure they achieved the same result as the previous year. It involves literally raising the grade of students to ensure that, on aggregate, that cohort achieves the same results.

True to its word of “no cliff edge”, the Government did it again in 2023. And again this year.

When announcing the process for this year’s exams in April, Ms Foley again opted for the term — which appears three times in the Department of Education press release.

“I can confirm that the process of returning Leaving Certificate outcomes to pre-pandemic levels will begin for 2025 students and it will be a gradual process, in line with my commitment that there would be no cliff-edge in terms of a return to pre-pandemic outcomes,” she said.

“It is right to [adjust marks] again in 2024, with the majority of students this year not having had the opportunity to sit Junior Cycle examinations given that most students sitting the Leaving Certificate examinations in 2024 would have completed Junior Cycle in 2021.” 

The task of performing this “post-marking adjustment” again fell to the State Examinations Commission, upon which it falls to follow the minister’s direction.

This followed the same process as in 2022 and 2023, in what they call a “linear adjustment”. In simple terms, it means the lower grades get a bigger bump up compared to those who had the higher grades.

But, even for those already getting the higher grades, the 4.8% adjustment for them could make the difference between achieving the second highest grade of H2 and a H1.

The State Examinations Commission said when the class of 2024 had their results marked, they were broadly similar to the marks achieved by the class of 2023.

But, the class of 2023 had their grades bumped up to be on par with 2022. So, the same had to be done this year.

The result is a situation where 68% of all grades achieved in the Leaving Cert have increased following this “post-marking adjustment”. This is slightly less than the 71% of grades boosted in 2023, but significantly higher than the 50% increased in 2022.

Of all the grades achieved in higher-level exams, 14.3% were the top grades.

This is all, of course, good news for this year’s Leaving Cert class as they too get to benefit from the bumped-up grades of previous years.

Fierce competition for courses

But all of this means the already fierce competition for courses through the CAO process will remain to the fore this year, although students will be forced to wait until Wednesday to find out if they have been offered their top choice.

As well as the grades which are being kept at record highs, supply and demand plays a key role in dictating the points requirements for courses in institutions around the country. Demand for different courses can vary from year to year, and the points needed can change accordingly.

When it can come down to just a few points for students missing out on courses or, even worse, random selection in some cases, having their grades inflated could matter very little.

What is key for students now who may not be happy with certain results is to be aware of the options available to them.

From midday on Tuesday August 27, students can access the breakdown of their marks awarded for each subject through the candidate self-service portal. They can also apply to view their marked examinations scripts as well as making an appeal on the grade they were awarded.

They can then make such an appeal on the portal between 10am on Sunday September 1 and 5pm Monday September 2. The €40 fee for each subject appealed is waived if the student receives an upgrade to their mark.

Appeals

The State Examinations Commission said: “For 2024, the SEC can advise that the intended date for the issue of the results of the Leaving Certificate appeals is Friday, September 27. This is the first time since 2019 that the SEC has been able to announce a date for the appeal results at the time of issue of the results.” 

That is welcome clarity for students who are appealing results. Despite the be-all-and-end-all narrative around the Leaving Cert, they will still have plenty of options available to them either via the CAO or other means, such as the Government-trumpeted apprenticeship programmes across the State.

As has been the case in previous years, once the dust settles on this year’s Leaving Cert, focus will soon turn to what the Government will do in 2025.

In that April announcement, the Department of Education signalled the phasing-out of post-marking adjustments to raise grades.

“Clarity on Leaving Cert result processes and timelines is critical to ensuring smooth transitions for students into post-school options, and enabling planning in the tertiary education sector,” it said.

But the solution outlined at the time was that grade bumping will still happen, but at a lesser scale compared to 2019.

“This means there will still be a post-marking adjustment exercise in 2025 that will seek to bring the overall set of results on the aggregate to a point no lower than broadly midway between the 2020 and 2021 levels,” Ms Foley said.

While lower than the 2024 outcomes, results on the aggregate in 2025 are expected to be above 2019 levels by at least 5.5% on average.

How the Government follows through on this will be watched closely. Looking further ahead, the department said once the 2025 Leaving Cert exams process is over, the experience “will be reviewed in order to determine the approach for the following year”.

After the results were issued last year, the now-Taoiseach, and then minister for migher education, Simon Harris told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland he believed there should be an end of grade inflation and a gradual return to normal.

“But, how you do it matters,” he said.

Among a hefty in-tray for whatever coalition comes to power after the next election, addressing the post-pandemic Leaving Cert exams once and for all will be one test in which the new government will certainly have to secure top marks.