And this is going to have a significant impact on Ireland's neutrality and defence policy, areas where we remain largely reliant on the goodwill and capacity of our international allies.

Manpower shortages in our naval service and our army often leave Ireland dependent on other nations for support in defence matters, and the country has been fingered as a weak link in Europe's defence by numerous critics in recent years.

Already, the US and other nations keep a close eye on the vitally important subsea cables that run through waters off the Irish coast carrying critical data between the continents, while Britain's RAF makes its presence known in our airspace due to our lack of fighter jets.

The replacement of a hostile Conservative government with a more open Labour one, led by Keir Starmer, opens up the prospect of improved relations with the United Kingdom, while a slightly shaken Emmanuel Macron remains in situ as president of France.

However, across the Atlantic, the looming spectre of a second Donald Trump presidency and the isolationist republican policies that brings with it cannot be ignored, even if it seems like less of a foregone conclusion than it did a month ago before Joe Biden departed the race.

During his first term in office, Trump showed little interest in Ireland in the same way as Democrat counterparts, such as Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton, often have. 

Nor did he show much interest in Europe's defensive capacities, under a greater glare now than at any stage of the previous 70-plus years as numerous wars are waged nearby, while he has often criticised NATO members for their lack of spending on defence.

Trump's tendency to focus more on domestic matters and to align himself more with nations that are, at best, indifferent to Irish affairs could leave Ireland a little more isolated on a global scale than we have become accustomed to. 

And that is before we encounter the prospect of Putin's interference in overseas affairs.

Britain

But what of the old enemy across the Irish Sea? Keir Starmer has said he wants to "reset" relations with Ireland and, in all likelihood, that could result in greater military co-operation. 

There’s little doubt that Ireland aids Britain in identifying Russian threats off our coastline — but all we can do is keep a lookout. We have just one ship on patrol capable of accessing the Atlantic. None of our ships have sonar capabilities so they can’t see what’s going on underneath the waves.

They can only monitor submarines if they surface, as happened last year when a Russian sub came up just outside Cork Harbour. We couldn’t do anything about it and it was chased off following the arrival of an RAF helicopter which dropped sonar into the sea and later by the arrival of a Royal Navy anti-submarine frigate.

The whole incident reflected poorly on Ireland's abilities: Irish navy ships had sonar in the 1970s and 1980s. The Department of Defence has said it intends to equip them again with underwater detection equipment, but it won’t arrive any time soon so in the meantime we rely on the British, in particular, as our closest neighbour and, to a lesser extent, the French.

Somewhat frighteningly, the head of the British Armed Forces, General Roland Walker, recently said that his country must prepare itself to fight a war within three years. He wants to double the size of the regular British Army from its current 75,325 in the next three years and treble it by the end of this decade.

The reality facing Ireland is uncertain but one thing we can assume is that the expectations for Ireland to do more will increase.

That pressure may come from the British in the form of asking us to increase our military capabilities through significant defence spending or it could come in the form of pressure from our European allies, which will expect a greater contribution to any European military association.

Lieutenant General Sean Clancy, the current Defence Forces Chief of Staff, could well feel that pressure when he becomes chair of the European Union Military Committee (EUMC) next year. He will then be elevated to the rank of general.

We are steadily being pulled into a European military pact regardless of some of the mutterings coming from politicians who maintain that we are still neutral. How can we maintain the view that we are neutral when we are part of a European Battlegroup? 

If one of its members is attacked, we may well say we are militarily neutral and won’t come to their aid, but are we not morally obliged to help them?

Defence spending

While Ireland has increased its defence spending it is still woefully poor compared to other countries of our size or even smaller. The government says it is committed to elevating defence spending to €1.5bn per annum within the next four years. 

But that is still less than 0.3% of our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. Liechtenstein and Malta spend more per capita than we do. Military spending by most other European countries has been upped significantly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now at its highest since the Cold War.

The British government currently spends 2.3% of GDP on defence and Starmer has previously indicated that he wants to increase this to 2.5%, although the prime minister hasn’t given a timeline for when this will happen.

The latest Irish Defence Policy Review is being taken with a pinch of salt by some military analysts. The document states maritime security is a top priority for the State.

The review says there will be an "immediate focus on the development of an Integrated Monitoring and Surveillance System for Air, Land and Sea domains for Ireland." 

Looking at the current situation with the Naval Service that seems ambitious to say the least. It's no coincidence that EU fishery patrol vessels are operating more frequently in Irish waters in recent times as the disastrously understrength navy is unable to do that job effectively.

The review also states the Department of Defence will lead on the development of the National Maritime Security Strategy in co-operation with national and international stakeholders.

It doesn’t state who the international stakeholders will be. Depending on who we co-operate with could again highlight that claims we are neutral don’t stack up.