Mick Clifford: Democracy on trial in 2024
As May, Status Convicted Trump Little A Of Now, It Criminal The Es That Have By Have Election Of The Around, Would Like Election Time Looks Prospect The On Bearing Donald An
Hold onto your hat. The year that is about to begin could be momentous. At the end of it, we may know whether the liberal democracy that has been a hallmark of the West over the last 80 years is on the way out.
Locally, we should also find out whether the electoral trends seen throughout Europe and further afield could in any substantial way at all be replicated here. And with such weighty issues to tax and stress, relief can be sourced through the froth of life known as sport. In that vein, the big question presenting is will the great Dublin
football team and Limerick’s hurlers finally succumb to the march of time.
First, the serious stuff. In early June, elections to the European Parliament and local authorities will take place. One of the main issues here, and in many elections in the year ahead, will be immigration. The indications are that, in Europe, there will be a drift towards the far right. This has already happened in national and regional
elections in the EU.
If it does come to pass, the move will in all likelihood mean that policy towards immigration in the union will change, and possibly radically. It will also have implications for how Europe deals with the war in Ukraine and the mass slaughter that is Israel’s assault on Gaza.
Such a shift might also be a precursor to a broader change in the collective decisions of the member states. Right now, Victor Orban of Hungary looks relatively isolated as a leader who subscribes to the far-right tenets of authoritarianism and polarisation, but parties of a like mind are in the ascendant right in the EU.
If the centre does not hold in Germany and France in particular, the whole union is heading off on a strange and possibly dangerous journey.
The only note of encouragement in that respect is in Poland, where Donald Tusk is now attempting to row back on the authoritarian structures, such as control of the media, which his predecessor put in place.
The European elections will coincide with local elections here. This will be the first real test as to the electoral support for those who are espousing major changes in immigration policy.
A Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll earlier this month revealed that 28% of those polled would consider supporting a party or candidate holding “strong anti-immigrant views”.
An exit poll after the 2020 general election found that immigration was an issue for 1% of voters. Quite obviously, the war in Ukraine and a spike in the numbers seeking international protection, allied to the housing crisis, has made immigration a major issue.
Unlike in a lot of European countries, immigration as an issue here is so far seen as exclusively concerning asylum seekers and war refugees. All of the problems and negative feelings that have arisen — among a minority of people — concern the location of groups of refugees or asylum seekers in communities.
And short of withdrawing from international obligations, including those applying to EU member states, there is little choice but to accept people fleeing war. Those who rant about ‘open borders’ or suggest we should just stop accepting asylum seekers either have not a clue about the big picture or simply don’t care.
Electorally, the major difference between this country and most of Europe is that there is no vehicle, or individual, around which those disposed to far-right ideology can congregate.
All of the parties in the Dáil would baulk at the kind of changes that are being pushed in mainland Europe and in the UK. So expect in the local elections to see plenty of Independents chasing votes on this issue. Expect also to see some candidates abandon their party to run as Independents if they can sense an advantage in doing so. And, unfortunately, it seems almost inevitable that there will be a coarsening of any debate on this topic. The extent to which the immigrant card will be played in the local elections may well have a bearing on how some tackle it going into the next general election, most likely later in the year.
The early summer will also probably bring an election in the UK. At least here there is expected to be some pushback against the immigration-obsessed Tories. A Labour Party win, or even a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, should see the country tip-toeing back to normality.
In the North as well, the coming year could be momentous. Either the DUP goes back into powersharing under a Sinn Féin first minister or direct rule kicks in again, setting governance in the statelet back decades.
The most consequential election of the year will be that for US president. At the moment it has all the appearance of being a contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden’s candidacy is blighted by his age and latterly his approach to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza.
Trump may, by the time the election comes around, have the status of a convicted criminal. As of now, that prospect looks like it would have little bearing on an election.
Should Trump win, there is consensus that he will usher in major attempts to dismantle democratic institutions and make common cause with far-right strong-men in Europe.
Every American knows this and also, on the basis of his first term, knows that Trump has little substance and revels in polarisation and spreading misinformation. The fact that he is a slight favourite to win is one of the most depressing omens for the future of liberal democracy.
Back home, the smart money says we will have a general election in the late autumn. Issues over adherence to the tenets of liberal democracy arise here also but on a much smaller scale. Some do not accept that Sinn Féin has signed up fully and completely to democratic norms since its armed wing abandoned killing for a united Ireland. That concern will have little impact on the outcome of the next election.
What it will all boil down to is whether or not a large chunk of the electorate believes that Sinn Féin can do a better job of the basics, such as housing and health, than the current Government.
As of now, it appears as if Sinn Féin will be the biggest party in the next Dáil, but that of itself will not guarantee power. The election will be full of promises, but ultimately the prize may go to the entity that excels at negotiation and compromise.
As for Limerick and Dublin? Limerick to do it one more time again. The Dubs will give way to Kerry once more, kicking off an era of dominance from the Kingdom. Hey, we all have our dreams. Happy New Year.