The world is currently on course to surpass the 1.5C temperature rise limit, agreed at Cop21 in Paris in 2015.

That 1.5C figure is crucial to grasping the severity of the climate change crisis gathering pace every season.

According to the Paris Agreement, a 1.5C rise in temperatures was set as the goal limit for the rise globally, compared to 1850-1900, in order to stave off the very worst fallout from climate change.

Considering the global temperature is merely flirting with a permanent 1.5C rise in the years since the Paris Accords, the change across the world in the past decade when it comes to extreme heatwaves, intensified storms, prolonged drought, and persistent rainfall should focus the minds at how ominous things would be if it went beyond that mark.

According to scientific modelling, a 2C rise would mean the likes of coral reefs would die off, ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica would melt and cause huge rises in sea levels — making prominent coastal cities and settlements vulnerable in decades to come — and there would be untold wipeout of much of the world’s biodiversity, which is already teetering.

Crop failures at 2C could lead to food production being halted and spikes in prices of everyday items, while diseases — such as malaria and dengue fever — would break out of their traditional hotspots to become health issues in places that would never have expected it.

A 3C or even 4C rise — not beyond the scope of possibility — would bring unimaginable consequences in decades to come, with many parts of the world becoming virtually unlivable.

Host’s ties to fossil fuel

Why then has Cop28 not captured the world’s attention?

Humanitarian catastrophes in Gaza, an ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine, and other conflicts have obviously garnered attention from world leaders and populations, while environmental activists are cynical about the choice of host for Cop28.

The Cop28 event has been the focus of intense criticism before it even begins, because of the United Arab Emirates’ ties to fossil fuel.

The UAE’s climate envoy and host of Cop28 is Sultan Ahmed
al-Jaber, head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) — the 12th largest oil-producing firm in the world.

Environmental groups have castigated the choice of climate envoy, with Mr al-Jaber’s position described as “ridiculous”, considering Adnoc’s massive expansion of oil and gas production in the future.

Climate leaders, such as former Irish president Mary Robinson, are insistent that legitimate criticism of the event cannot take away from the fact that it simply must deliver meaningful agreements and action.

“At Cop28, we need to drive greater ambition on climate action among world leaders and governments,” Ms Robinson said. “This is extremely important in order to keep 1.5C alive. For this, we need to phase out fossil fuels and scale up clean energy.

“It is extremely important to put people first and create outcomes that are fair for those who are on the front lines of climate impacts. We need to prioritise climate justice and unlock finance in order to ensure a sustainable, just, and equitable future that does not leave anyone behind.”

At the Cop27 climate change summit in Egypt last year, a landmark agreement on so-called “loss and damage” was agreed after years of geopolitical tussling.

“Loss and damage” refers to the consequences of climate change that go beyond what people can adapt to, while “climate finance” refers to major nations paying a fairer share towards climate change bolstering in smaller nations.

The agreement at Cop27 is
designed to ensure wealthier nations pay a fairer share towards the aftermath of climate change-led events, such as extreme cyclones and drought, helping smaller nations who are facing the most severe consequences.

Ireland committed at least €225m per year in international climate finance by 2025, at Cop26 in Glasgow, in November 2021.

According to Christian Aid and Trócaire, Ireland should be paying more than six times that amount by the end of the decade as a fair share.

Official data for 2021 show Ireland paid just under €100m that year.

The report by the charity organisations found wealthy countries initially pledged to provide $100bn (€91.4bn) a year in support, to developing countries for climate action, in both 2009 (Copenhagen) and 2015 (Paris).

“However, more than a decade later, this target has still not been met — OECD data states just $83bn (€75.9bn) was provided in 2020, while academic and civil society estimates suggest the true value is less than a third of what has been reported,” Christian Aid and Trócaire said.

Those cynical are right to be so, according to Mrs Robinson — but out of unexpected place can come landmark moments, she said.

“Cop28 is a key moment— it comes when we are running out of time.

“It is the Cop that has the global stocktake, which has shown us that governments are not fulfilling the commitments they committed to at the Paris Agreement.

“I remember well because I was the special envoy of the UN Secretary General at the time — when we went into the Paris Cop21 in December 2015, we didn’t think we were going to get the goal we wanted, which included 1.5C in the text.

“We changed things and we got a goal that said we would stay well below 2C and work for 1.5C,” Mrs Robinson added.

The stocktake is when countries will review progress towards the Paris Agreement goals of 2015, including the goal of keeping global warming to well below 2C, while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5C.

“We’re now at the latter stage of that and we are running out of time,” said Ms Robinson.

“I hope this Cop will very clearly say we not only have to phase out of fossil fuel, but that we have to do it with just transition for the workers, the communities that will be affected, and a just transition into affordable, accessible renewable energy that is in every home in the future.”

‘Just transition’ is the term used to describe making sure employment opportunities and societal benefits are present for those who live and work in communities tied to legacy industries, such as coal mining and peat extraction, as well as protecting less financially secure and vulnerable citizens.

Leading by example

Ireland has a global part to play, not only in negotiations at Cop28 but also leading by example in the reduction of its own emissions, which are amongst the most
intensive per person in the world.

The argument that Ireland is merely a small player compared to the industrial powerhouses like the US, India, and China does not hold weight, according to Ms Robinson.

“It is a false equivalency,” she said. “We are a rich country — not everyone in Ireland is rich obviously, we are an unequal country — but by global terms, we are a rich country and our carbon footprint is quite high.

“We haven’t been in the front
of reducing that, we have been a laggard until recently with good climate legislation.

“Now we are on course to reduce, by 29%, our commitment to reducing emissions by 2030 — not 51% as is in our legislation, or 55% as it will be — because the EU knows we have to get more urgent. 29% is not good — we need to step up and do a lot better,
and we are not small — we are
influential. We are at the table and we can make a difference.”

In June this year, stark figures revealed how far off course Ireland is from reaching its greenhouse gas emissions targets, by the end of the decade.

By then, the goal was to have reduced emissions by 51%.

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), they are on course to have been cut by just 29% — with key sectors, such as agriculture and transport, way off target.

Even that 29% cut will only happen if all emissions-reduction plans currently mooted and in train are implemented, the EPA says.

If the planned actions are not implemented and existing measures are relied upon, the reduction is forecast to be just 11%.

University College Cork (UCC), which will send a delegation to Cop28 as it has in recent years, says it has identified five worrying trends for Ireland’s environment.

UCC, which has over 500 researchers engaged in sustainability, pinpointed two weather records have been broken in 2023 in Ireland: The warmest June and wettest July on record.

Ireland has one of the most fossil fuel dependent economies in Europe, with fossil fuels meeting more than 85% of our energy needs, while €1m was spent per hour on oil and gas alone in 2022.

Some 63% of Ireland’s bird species are in decline, while more than half of Ireland’s native plants are in decline, it said.

The associate vice-president of sustainability at UCC, Prof Brian Ó Gallachóir, said: “Cop28 has come under criticism for being held in Dubai, however UCC is sending a delegation.

“As the first Irish university to become an observer member of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, we feel it’s important to observe the Cop deliberations, to critically assess what emerges, and to report back both on the discussions and outcomes. It is also a timely opportunity to highlight significant challenges Ireland faces.”