Paul Hosford: Poll findings bring Social Democrats 'party' to abrupt end
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On the weekend of a party's convention, there is often a tide of goodwill — media coverage is abundant and everybody in the party has got together to look to the future.
For some in the Social Democrats, that sense of happiness may have lasted just a few hours as the latest Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes polling landed. With the poll putting the party on 0% support, the question is whether it is merely a snapshot in time or a worrying sign.
Just a month shy of its sixth birthday, the party now has more than 2,000 members, six TDs, and 20 councillors across the country. It is a left-leaning party, which proposes measures such as universal healthcare, taxes on vacant property, and cheaper, Government-run childcare in a country with crises in those areas. It has young, urbane representatives and breakout stars of this Dáil.
So, why is its polling averaging since the 2020 election hitting a ceiling of 5% to 7%?
To explain some of this difficulty, it is simply a numbers game. The level of support in Ireland for a centre-left party may simply be around 10% to 12% of voters and with the Social Democrats and Labour offering, to much of the public, at least, the same product under different branding, it could just be that the Social Democrats has a built-in cap on its support. The other is that the party leading Sunday's poll, Sinn Féin at 37%, is eating up support across the left.
This is not always a bad thing at the highest levels of politics. The Greens and Labour have made a decent living out of being a junior coalition partner — a necessary buttress at times. There is also the opportunity to benefit from a broader left movement in the mould of the Vote Left, Transfer Left trend which popped up in the weeks before the 2020 election.
However, it is not where anyone actively wants to be, scrapping for the fifth seat or fending off questions of a merger with Labour.
Which brings us to the leadership of the party — the current co-leader setup is one less than the party started with, but there remains a question over whether this is impeding the Social Democrats from making a breakthrough. Some feel that Róisín Shortall does not represent the activist wing of the party and the Soc Dems should be pushing harder on issues such as rights for sex workers and trans people as well as on socially progressive policies, legalisation of cannabis and decriminalisation of other drugs.
Within the party, opinions are mixed on leadership. Some believe that it is holding the Soc Dems back from forging a clear identity. They point to the successes of Mary Lou McDonald and Leo Varadkar to become emblematic of their party's policies.
However, others say that the concern with the leadership setup is more a concern outside the party. They point to the national profiles of the party's four non-leader TDs as proof that this is a party genuinely interested in new voices and that this is a better long-term strategy.
Whatever the party thinks — merger or no merger, leaders or leader — with three years before an election (all going to plan), now is the time to decide.