Padraig Hoare: Herculean effort needed for Ireland to reach climate targets
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We are in the starting blocks, the gun to begin the race has fired, but we have the wrong racing shoes on, we haven’t tied our laces properly, and the race is up a steep hill.
That’s what Ireland is facing in trying to meet its own legally binding climate obligations in the next three decades.
The science around climate change and greenhouse gas emissions can be difficult and head-scratching for the layperson to understand.
What is not so difficult to grasp is how behind the curve Ireland and the rest of the world are in attempting to rein in the release of gases that are causing our planet to heat artificially, outside of the natural cycles.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has laid bare the steep challenge ahead with its greenhouse gas emissions projections between now and 2040.
Although some sectors have a bigger challenge in reducing their emissions over the next decade, all must double down on their efforts, according to the EPA.
The Climate Act 2021, which was passed last July, commits Ireland to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030 compared to 2018 and also achieve a climate-neutral economy by 2050.
Under the EPA's projections unveiled this week, it will be an eye-of-the-needle Herculean effort to make the 2030 targets and, without even more measures, it will not be possible to reach the 2050 targets.
In order to reach the 2030 targets, the Government announced so-called "carbon budgets" in 2020 and unveiled them last October.
They include all greenhouse gases in each five-year cycle and will allocate emissions ceilings to the likes of motorists, households, farmers, businesses, and industry.
The carbon budget for 2021-2025 aims to reduce emissions by 4.8% on average annually for five years, while the 2026-2030 budget will look to increase that annual reduction to 8.3%.
However, we are already behind.
The various sectors have still not been allocated their individual budgets, despite being in the pipeline for months, and we are already past the first phase of the first phase. The allocations are due by the end of this month, it is now envisaged.
Despite this, the country can still meet targets up to 2030, if planned policies and measures are fully implemented, with up to 28%, or 4% a year, emissions reduction up to 2030, the agency said.
The EPA outlined emissions-reduction scenarios in two categories — "with existing measures" (WEM) and "with additional measures" (WAM).
There are some of sectors that will have to implement major changes.
Every sector will have to play a major role but agriculture will be asked to really up its game.
The EPA projections include an assumption that agriculture will meet the lower end of emissions reduction targets "in the absence of specific detail and data on the sectors methane reduction measures".
Beef and dairy cattle are among the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Cows mainly generate methane through digestion and waste.
"Under the WEM scenario, emissions are projected to increase by 1.9% over the 2020-2030 period. A methane emissions reduction of almost 30% is required to achieve a 22% reduction in agriculture emissions compared to 2018, as committed to in the 2021 Climate Action Plan.
"The sector must clearly set out how this will be achieved to address uncertainty regarding its ability to deliver even the lower end of the range of its sectoral targets within the ever-shortening timeframe to 2030," the EPA said.
Transport will also have to do some heavy lifting, even though aviation is not included because it is seen as an international problem rather than a national one.
The data shows that transport will already have to come from behind if it is to stand any chance of succeeding.
The EPA said: "The end of Covid travel restrictions is projected to result in transport emissions increasing by 18-19% from 2020 to 2022.
"This includes over 940,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030, increased biofuel blend rates and measures to support more sustainable transport."
The Government's plan to have 1m electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030 is seen as unlikely, with increases in EV sales healthier month by month but still lagging behind what will be needed.
Ambitious retrofitting plans have been unveiled by the Government but obstacles remain and expertise in the field is still catching up to the projected demand.
"Implementing currently planned measures for the installation of 680,000 heat pumps by 2030 as well as retrofitting 500,000 homes is projected to achieve a 41.5% reduction in residential emissions in 2030 compared to 2018," the EPA said.
Renewable energy will be crucial if Ireland is to meet emissions targets, as the world moves away from fossil fuel dependence — albeit far too slowly for environmental and energy experts.
Ireland is still shackled to fossil fuels, while the demands of data centres continue to mushroom, according to experts, and this is borne out by EPA projections.
The EPA said: "Under the WAM scenario, renewable energy is projected to increase to 78% of electricity generation by 2030, with emissions from the energy industry decreasing by 10% per annum from 2021-30.
For the environmental advocacy group Friends of the Earth, the findings all around are stark.
Friends of the Earth climate policy coordinator Dr Bríd Walsh, said: "We need meticulous and urgent implementation of all planned climate actions and the identification and adoption of new actions in every sector. Key to this process is the Government’s introduction of new emissions ‘ceilings’ for each sector, due by the end of this month."
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