This plan claims to pave the way for a Luas light rail system for Cork. The revised National Development Plan, launched in Cork last month, contained ambitious proposals for more sustainable public transport and active mobility for each of our cities.

That is essential in the context of the compact growth envisaged in the strategy. For some, shelving key public transport initiatives in the capital at the same time as plans progress for light rail in other cities is evidence of a rebalancing in the allocation of transport investment. 

I wouldn’t be so sure.

There is certainly a renewed emphasis on public and active mobility in our cities and towns in recent years. This isn’t because of a new concern for balanced spatial development. 

It is motivated by the realisation that our cities cannot operate as they currently do if we experience the rate of population growth projected in the National Development Plan.

The populations of Cork, Limerick, Waterford, and Galway are projected to grow by 50%-60% in the next two decades. For context, that corresponds to an additional 105,000 people in Cork over that timeframe.

These cities are already struggling to move the populations they already have, and it is evident that if we retain our dependency on cars the cities will quickly become gridlocked. This will not be fixed by a switch to electric vehicles that take up the same space.

Climate action is also finally getting traction in policymaking, though nowhere near the level of urgency that is required. 

Whatever hope we have of meeting our climate targets will disappear if we can’t get people out of their cars.

The need to become more sustainable in our mobility patterns and the presence of a Green Party minister in the Department of Transport are motivating the new emphasis on public transport investment in our cities and towns, rather than a sudden urge to rebalance past decisions.

Remember, the Dublin Metro was trumpeted in many transport and urban development strategies since the height of the Celtic Tiger years. We need to be more than a little sceptical about how soon, if ever, we might see light rail on the streets of Cork.

However, putting light rail on the perpetual long finger is not necessarily something we should be upset about. It is not clear that Cork needs a light rail system, and even the proposed route from Ballincollig through the city to Mahon, will serve a fraction of the population.

A Cork Luas will be a huge boon for those on the route, especially property owners. But it will be largely irrelevant for those on the northside of the city and in large southside suburbs such as Carrigaline, Douglas, and Bishopstown. People living and working there will need alternatives.

In this context, the BusConnects plan is critically important. While one of its objectives is to pave the way for a Cork Luas, it could also demonstrate that Cork is more than adequately served by a well-functioning bus network.

There is no way of avoiding the central problem in making our cities work for public transport and active commuting. To do so requires us to reallocate scarce road space away from cars. This is something that our local governments have always been reluctant to do, and which has been fiercely opposed by city traders.

The opposition of city traders, on whom city councils rely for rates, is powerful even though the current model does not seem to be saving our city centres from decline. Also, initiatives that have reduced cars on our streets have subsequently been hailed by citizens and businesses alike.

Paving the way for a Cork Luas must mean providing space on the proposed routes for buses that can subsequently be used for tracks. We may find that getting cars out of the way will make the bus service more reliable and attractive.

Then we can decide whether we will need to invest billions of euros in shiny new trains for a small gain in journey times. BusConnects has the potential to transform our cities and help us meet our climate goals, but only if we can finally overcome our addiction to our cars.

• Dr Declan Jordan is senior lecturer in economics at Cork University Business School