Niamh Griffin: Vaccine picture looks rosier – but we have a long way to go
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After a couple of landmark moments in the last week, the vaccination outlook for Ireland is a lot rosier than it was, with a firm expectation now that all adults will be fully vaccinated by early September.
But, despite these changes, people still need to remain vigilant as the looming threat of the Delta variant continues to cast a shadow.
A week ago, it emerged the Government had negotiated with Romania to purchase an additional 1m doses of the Pfizer vaccine, and there is potential for even more to come from EU and non-EU partners, though the timeframe for these additional jabs is not yet clear.
In addition, the Janssen and AstraZeneca vaccines have also been cleared for use in the under 40s, opening up a huge volume of vaccines for younger people which could potentially go to waste.
The rollout of the single-shot Janssen jab in pharmacies this week was met with huge enthusiasm among younger cohorts, with some pharmacy chains reporting wait lists in the thousands.
While this cleared a few hurdles, questions still remained on the 100,000 60 to 69-year-olds, healthcare workers, and vulnerable patients awaiting their second dose, though HSE vaccination lead Damien McCallion said they would all have an appointment by Sunday, July 18.
As such, it is easier to see why HSE chief executive Paul Reid has been quite bullish in predicting the “end of August, early September” as a likely date for vaccinating all adults who wish to be vaccinated.
Two million people are now fully vaccinated and 70% of adults have one shot of their two-dose regime.
These are positive figures and it is a positive trend, even if the looming spectre of Delta is causing some anxiety.
But, despite this progress, there is still a long way to go in the vaccine rollout.
Immunologists like Dr Elizabeth Ryan at the University of Limerick have said Ireland needs to get 80% or more of the adult population vaccinated for a strong protective effect.
There has been discussion about general vaccination for under-18s, with Niac continuing to examine the evidence.
This week, the registration portal opened for the 30 to 34-year-olds, though health chiefs have been cagey about when those in their 20s can sign up.
And the pharmacy rollout of Janssen is a significant step, but Mr McCallion this week confirmed each pharmacy only receives 50 to 100 doses per delivery, with 120,000 doses scheduled to go out this month. Each jab is chipping away at the outstanding cohorts awaiting vaccination, but some of the progress is quite slow.
We are all paying even more attention than usual to the rollout for various reasons this week.
For medics it is about variants.
The Delta variant, previously the Indian variant, is spreading among unvaccinated people and is estimated to account for over 70% of cases.
However, chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry described vaccines as “the floodwall” against the virus.
Cases are indeed rising but the positivity rate at the HSE testing centres is just 4.6%, a fraction of the 50% rate evident in January, when no one was vaccinated.
And while some of us are focusing on vaccines, others are keeping a close eye on reopening.
The confusion over the digital Covid certs and the reopening rules around hospitality remain a headache for people, not least the businesses affected, but even those who just want a holiday or need to travel abroad.
Some of those anxieties are exacerbated by seeing how our nearest neighbours are operating.
While the UK remains divided on how to handle the Delta threat, this week they have seen more than 60,000 people attending football matches in London, and prime minister Boris Johnson has said legal requirements on mask-wearing and gatherings will end on July 19 in England. It feels like a world away.
In Northern Ireland, though, things are moving more slowly as cases rise.
This is why the HSE talks of a race between the variant and the vaccines – a race Ireland must try to win.
But this is not something we can achieve alone. We are all scrambling for vaccines, but some countries are struggling more than others.
In the long term this could impact Ireland. As Dr Mike Ryan, the Irishman heading the WHO emergency response to Covid-19 said this week: “For a lot of the world this thing is only getting started.”
He described re-opening with low vaccinations rates as potentially a “toxic mixture”.
All of this points to the need not only for the Irish rollout to continue at speed but for the EU to support other countries in doing the same.