Back in November — which now feels like a lifetime and several Covid levels ago — the Government's announcement that it would be moving the country to level 3 of the framework of restrictions was the biggest deviation from public health officials' advice thus far in the pandemic.
The gamble was based on legitimate reasoning — Taoiseach Micheál Martin was keenly aware that people had carried as much weight as they possibly could in 2020, and a lockdown Christmas was too bleak a prospect countenance.
But it didn't work out as the Government hoped.
While the National Public Health Emergency Team argued that the country was in a "precarious" position in the fight against Covid-19 and urged the Government not to open hospitality settings, the Taoiseach was announcing hospitality would open and household visits could resume in late December, though many saw the flaw in this — if I could meet my family in a restaurant, why not their home? — and those visits increased.
In March, Leo Varadkar and Simon Harris were able to make the bluntest decisions based on the bluntest advice because of what we thought was the short-term nature of the crisis. As the months wore on, more nuance was needed. Nphet, whose focus is squarely on public health, has a narrower scope than the Government, which has to balance everything, including that well-worn line of "lives and livelihoods".
Make no mistake: Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan's advice at the end of last month, which warned of "growing evidence" that indoor settings like bars and restaurants contribute to viral spread and that "the level of disease in January 2021 will present a real and substantial threat to the ongoing protection of public health and of the most vulnerable", was stark.
If you were exposed to #COVID19 on Christmas Day, you would be at your most infectious to people you encounter tomorrow on New Year’s Eve.
— Dr Tony Holohan (@DrTonyHolohan) December 30, 2020
This poses a serious risk of significant additional spread. #StayAtHome and stay safe. pic.twitter.com/eMUPynPmLx
But Micheál Martin also had to weigh up the economic and societal cost of continuing lockdowns, and of essentially cancelling Christmas. That is the weight of running the country, and one which he takes seriously.
It was a risk to think that all of the following could happen: that numbers could remain low, that everyone could see their family over Christmas, and that hospitality could get a chance to put some money in the tills before shutting again in January. In the end, it was likely zero for three on those, as cases rose and Christmas plans changed and restaurants were shut early.
Mr Martin said yesterday that the virus has dictated these moves and, largely, he is right.
Watch: Taoiseach Micheál Martin live statement on further Covid-19 restrictions. | Read more: https://t.co/QDB1KwgL7M https://t.co/QLrlURZCaP
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) December 30, 2020
The presence of a new, more transmissible, variant of the virus has been a gamechanger in many ways. But Mr Martin and his Government have made the decisions for which they have been elected. They alone make ideas into public policy.
As we enter a third national lockdown in 10 months, we must begin our conversations with this simple truth: the Government is not infallible, nor should we expect them to be. Those running our country never set out to make a mistake, especially not in a global pandemic when lives are at stake.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar says he is very optimistic about the summer ahead but adds, "I think the next three months in Ireland will be difficult." pic.twitter.com/lmyO9MQdk2
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) December 30, 2020
Now that the "time for nuance" is over, as Mr Martin said, the Government is once again under the cover of medical advice for the foreseeable future.
Whether it will stay there as we go into February remains to be seen.