Stephen Cadogan: Tracking the public's knowledge of climate change

However, poor knowledge of these sectoral emission rankings was revealed in a survey carried out last autumn, results of which were recently released.

From a representative sample of the Irish population, aged 18 and over, 1,355 survey interviews were completed.

The survey findings are part of a series which began in 2021, and confirm that Ireland has four stable categories of climate change attitudes.

Four categories of attitudes

Category one, called The Alarmed, make up 34% of the population, and strongly think that climate change due to human activity is a real and immediate threat. They strongly support climate mitigation and adaptation policies.

Most likely to be highly educated, urban, female, and employed, the EPA says they are the most knowledgeable group about climate change, but only 36% say agriculture is Ireland’s largest source of climate change.

The Concerned (48% of the population) are the largest category. Convinced that climate change is a serious issue, but less worried about it than the Alarmed, they support climate policies, and the EPA says they have moderate command of climate change facts.

Evenly split on gender, and most likely to be urban, highly educated, and employed, only 28% of them understand that agriculture is Ireland’s largest climate change source, said the EPA.

The Cautious (14% of the population) are less sure of the causes of climate change, and less sure that it will affect them personally. The EPA said they have the weakest understanding of climate change facts. Most likely to have moderate levels of education, be male, older, and retired, only 23% say agriculture is Ireland’s main cause.

The Doubtful are 4% of the population, and 57% of them think climate change is happening, but 40% say it is not happening (17% are “extremely sure” it is not happening). They are overwhelmingly not worried about climate change, they partially support climate policies, but strongly oppose bans or increased taxation on home or transport fuels.

The EPA says their grasp of climate change facts is “moderate”. They are most likely to have moderate levels of education, be male, over 45 years of age and employed, and only 17% understand that agriculture is Ireland’s largest source of climate change.

Both the Alarmed (37%) and Doubtful (36%) are the most confident that they know “a lot” about climate change.

Only The Alarmed blamed agriculture primarily for farmers (36%), versus 31% blaming energy industries such as power generation and gas refining. One in five blames transport, 10% waste (such as landfills, incinerators, and composting), and 2% residential housing and water heating.

The Concerned put transport marginally ahead of agriculture as the main polluter, at 30% versus 28%. Next come energy industries at 25%, waste at 12%, and residential housing and water heating at 5%.

As for the Cautious category, 30% think the energy industry is Ireland’s largest source of the pollution that causes climate change, ahead of transport and agriculture both at 23%, waste at 19%, and 6% blame the residential housing and water heating.

Finally, 24% of the Doubtful category put energy industries on top at 24%, followed by transport at 22%, agriculture at 17%, waste at 14%, residential housing and water heating at 9%, and 17% of this category say climate change is not happening.

The minorities of the Cautious (8%) and Doubtful (40%, including the “extremely sure” 17%) who do not think climate change is happening are estimated to represent only 2.8% of the adult Irish population.

Carbon footprint impact

Other survey findings of interest to the agriculture sector include that large minorities of each category did not understand the large carbon footprint impact of eating a plant-based diet (or avoiding flights), which the EPA said demonstrates the need for climate education.

A new finding is that large minorities in each category do not understand the human-caused nature of climate change, said the EPA, which also found that all audiences underestimated the carbon footprint impact of their dietary choices, and overestimated the impact of behaviours such as reusing shopping bags and recycling.

The survey revealed extremely high support across all audiences for many climate actions, with particularly high support for grants to install cleaner and more efficient heating systems, investment in public transport, and increased investment in forestry. 

But all four categories are less likely to support policies framed as restrictive bans or cuts (such as higher taxes on petrol and diesel cars, reducing the national cattle herd, or banning peat, coal, and oil for home heating), and the majority of the Cautious and Doubtful oppose those policies.

There was no evidence of an urban-rural divide in climate change attitudes.

Across all categories, the most trusted messengers on climate change are scientists, the Irish EPA, educators, family and friends, and TV weather reporters The Climate Change in the Irish Mind survey is carried out every two years by the EPA in partnership with Yale University’s “Programme on Climate Change Communications”.

The margin of error for the survey findings is plus or minus three percentage points.