Indications pre-Christmas beef market has peaked
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While the beef prices at the factories continue strong, the first signs of a slight tempering of the upward movement are beginning to emerge in the trade this week as supply eases.
Base quotes for steers are ranging from 515-520c/kg. There are a few cents more going for some deals involving larger numbers of quality stock and for regular suppliers, but it is less available in general.
The pattern is similar for the heifers. They are generally being bought by the factories on a base of 520-525c/kg and up to 530c/kg with some difficulty in special deals involving larger lots and regular suppliers.
"They (the factories) have been put under pressure to get sufficient stock over the past few weeks and had to pay a bit more than they had intended with the competition for supplies, but their intention is to tighten their rein again at the first opportunity," was one analysis on the ground this week.
"There is no indication of any major overall change because they will continue to need supplies over the coming weeks, but they are giving a strong hint that there isn't much room left for prices to rise further either," the source added.
Allowing for 21-28 days maturing before going on to the supermarket shelves, it is easy to see where the season is on the calendar and why the heat would start to ease a shade.
Nowadays, the usual Christmas break at the processing plants is reduced to a few days, and slaughtering will resume by mid-week after Christmas Day, with demand for supplies to replenish the shelves.
Available supplies of finished cattle will remain tight into the early weeks of 2025, which should be sufficient to ensure prices hold up, even for the usual leaner demand for the early weeks of the New Year.
Intake eased back last week to 38,791 head, more than 1,000 lower than the same week last year. Perhaps suggesting the peak weekly intake is over for this year.
The supply of both steers and cows was back on the same week in 2023, while the intake of heifers remained around 1,000 head stronger than last year.
Last week's intake included 14,656 steers, 11,957 heifers, 10,056 cows, and 1,576 young bulls.
