Eurozone yields slip as markets increase bets on Fed rate cut
Rates Jerome On David By Fed Fed Morris/bloomberg Photographer: Matter Decides Chair The Paul Will What On Remarks Investors Powell, No Focus
Eurozone government bond yields slipped on Monday as money markets increased their bets on a super-sized 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week.
The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also hold their policy meetings later this week and are expected to keep rates at the current levels.
Money markets fully priced 25 basis points of rate cut from the US central bank and a nearly 60% chance of a 50 bps move, from around 50% late last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"A rate cut of more than 25 bps seems unlikely — while the Fed is late in cutting rates, a larger move might be taken as a sign of panic," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
"Higher frequency cuts rather than larger cuts seem most likely," he added.
Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the eurozone, was up 2.7 basis points (bp) at 2.12%.
Citi mentioned Fed governor Christopher Waller, saying he was open-minded about the size and pace of rate cuts after data showed US employment increased less than expected in August.
"These comments would suggest that the Fed wants to start with small cuts while preserving the optionality to go in bigger steps later," said Jabaz Mathai, head of G10 rate and forex strategy at Citi. "Election timing would also justify a conservative start."
Investors will focus on remarks by Fed chair Jerome Powell, no matter what the Fed decides on rates.
The Fed decision "is likely to be wrapped up in dovish talk at the press conference," Citi's Mathai added. "Easing financial conditions, or at the very least not tightening them, would be the desired result."
Markets priced in about 40 bps of European Central Bank rate cuts by year-end, implying a 25 bps move and an around 60% chance of a second cut.
The German two-year yield, sensitive to changes in short-term euro zone rates, slipped 2.1 bps to 2.19%.
The ECB should almost certainly wait until December before cutting rates again to be certain it is not making a policy mistake in easing too quickly, ECB governing council member Peter Kazimir, an outspoken hawk, said.
Italy's 10-year yield was 3 bps lower at 3.49%, and the gap between Italian and German Bonds — a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold Italian government bonds — stood at about 135 bps.
Investors closely watch political developments in Italy and France, as the EU has placed the two countries under a so-called Excessive Deficit Procedure this year.
-