A massive share buyback may not be enough for Apple investors amid the worst month for big tech since the global financial crisis.
Seen as a safe haven within the tech and social media, Apple is expected to announce a share buyback programme of as much as $90bn (€84bn) when it unveils its quarterly results after the markets close on Thursday evening.
But that alone may not be enough to buoy the stock. Shares in Google-parent Alphabet fell even after the company announced a $70bn buyback of shares. Investors focused instead on quarterly earnings per share miss, slower ad sales in Europe, and lacklustre performance for YouTube.
For Apple, buybacks have become a central part of the investment case, and are especially important during turbulent times for technology stocks. Investors like repurchase programmes as they reduce a company’s share count and thereby provide a lift to earnings.
“Apple’s free cash flow and buybacks have definitely supported the company to a larger degree than its peers,” said Bob Shea at Trim Tabs Asset Management.
“Everything is coming under pressure right now, and investors are looking for names with high-quality and sustainable free-cash-flow profitability. Apple is at the top of that list,” he said.
But with expectations for a huge buyback potentially already baked in, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi says investors are likely to be most focused on the iPhone maker’s outlook. Apple faces several emerging headwinds, including lockdowns in China impacting its suppliers, the company’s withdrawal from Russia, dollar appreciation, and a squeeze on consumers in Europe, he said.
“While Apple’s ongoing buyback has the potential to drive solid [earnings] growth, we believe that Apple’s multiple will be most shaped by its top-line growth, which we think is likely to be low-to-mid single digits over time,” he wrote.
Still, a buyback topping the $90bn announced last April could boost the stock. “There is plenty of firepower for capital returns to accelerate,” according to Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani.
“Capital returns remain central to the Apple bull thesis, so a better-than-expected authorization could contribute to some post-earnings upside,” the analyst said.
- Bloomberg