John Whelan: Irish exporters survived chaos in markets in 2024
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The year 2024 was one of social and economic strife. When Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 last year, few would have predicted the scale of human suffering that transpired that day and in the months that followed.
Far fewer still would have anticipated that global supply lines, the cost of raw materials, and the availability of finished goods would be impacted by terror attacks on global shipping lines tied to these events.
Entering the year, international traders were already burdened by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and were struggling to handle sky-high interest rates, inflation of over 6% and a green transition imperative.
Against this background, Irish exporters managed to beat the odds and posted increased export sales of 15% in the 10 months to October, with an expectation of reaching an all-time high of €690m by the year end.
Of course, it was not plain sailing for all. Much depended on the trading sector exporters found themselves stuck in and the countries they were focused on.
Businesses that stuck with a one-size-fits-all strategy didn’t cut it.
Success in 2024 required tailoring strategies to fit the unique conditions of each county they were trying to sell to.
Exporters to the US did best, pushing their sales up by 30% in the year as they continued to gain from a buoyant US economy, which has outpaced its counterparts in Europe and elsewhere.
The World Bank upgraded its outlook for the global economy and said the “impressive” US economy is powering the world.
The wide range of SME exporters who mainly sell to Britain could not overcome the continuing UK government post-Brexit regulatory changes and stagnant economic growth and saw their sales revenue to the UK fall by 10% in the year.
Any hope of a last-minute gain from pre-Christmas sales to the market was dashed by the Storm Darragh damage to the port of Holyhead.
Lost sales to Britain, were compensated to a certain extent by a growth of 9% in sales to EU countries, despite the 2024 economic zero growth forecasts for the two major economies of Germany and France.
The nations unflatteringly nicknamed “PIIGS” during the European sovereign crisis in the 2010s kept the eurozone economy afloat.
Spain is forecast by the IMF, in their latest report, to grow by 3% in 2024, much faster than the 0.8% rate for the euro zone as a whole.
Italy and Portugal also outpaced the rest, while Ireland posted the bloc’s fastest quarterly growth rate in the period to October.
Ireland's GDP grew by 3.5% in Q3 2024, surpassing initial estimates of 2% and rebounding from a 0.3% contraction in the previous quarter, marking the strongest growth since early 2022. Key sectors like finance & insurance and professional services expanded by 4% and 3.6%, respectively, while construction grew by 3.5%. The export block-busting computer services sector, powered ahead by 17% in the period, and was outdone by the rapid return to growth in the pharmaceutical and medical devices sector which showed a massive quarterly sales growth of 27%.
The events of 2024 will indisputably shape the foreseeable future, designated as a year marked by significant elections.
Seventy-six nations cast their votes, empowering over half of the world’s population to have their say, although only about half of these countries held fully free and fair elections.
Elections across the globe included Ireland and other EU states as well as the UK and some of the world’s most populous nations including Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, Taiwan, and the United States.
The US presidential election dominated the media focus because of its inevitable effects on the global economy and on global security, but also because of the Trump factor. But the French snap election took many by surprise and the falling apart of the German coalition with an election now due in February, makes for difficulties for trade forecasting.
The green transition lost some momentum, as the vision for a sustainable future varied widely, from the US to China and the EU to emerging mid-sized powers. Predicting winners and losers amid competing priorities, models, and aspirations across nations and regions proved very challenging for business leaders.
Diversifying supply chains and staying informed on political developments will be key to enabling company executives to navigate the unprecedented uncertainty as the new year looms.
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